tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47483942572011688562024-03-05T16:47:24.797-08:00The Capital Region Pulse - Weather/ScienceWelcome to the Weather/Science page for The Capital Region Pulse!The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-68561954412658348762023-08-07T01:12:00.003-07:002023-08-07T01:12:58.690-07:00Dangerous Severe Weather Expected Today<p> Severe weather will threaten the region this afternoon and evening. There is the potential for the most significant severe weather episode in this area in the past 10 years today. That being said, some uncertainty and complicating factors remain to be worked out. </p><p>The primary potentially limiting factor for severe weather will be morning clouds and/or rain. If clouds and precipitation do not clear out of the area by late morning, instability could be reduced enough to reduce the overall severe threat. The expectation is that regardless of amount of sun, SOME threat for severe thunderstorms will exist...but sunshine will only serve to increase the threat. </p><p>At the time of this writing, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the "bullseye" of the severe weather risk for the DC/Baltimore area and surrounding areas. See the purple/pink area highlighted below. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlWn0t7GVs90qr4RqjXQ2qWJfJBNdjhzYLFkM6zZDz_6KkmMEjnbpAjeZudJAr4mCEkr4k3FIndSGDuq3CtakhJ9oh8uap5LmBqVttBOaaG3XNloQnburOFnF3v2YKv23Qo4QHNVWAbK6c_3SAgi35fCqx_qnNK4vlz3bu_3ZJM_rUZOmUwkZLXUohQ7Vo/s346/Screenshot%202023-08-07%20040548.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="255" data-original-width="346" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlWn0t7GVs90qr4RqjXQ2qWJfJBNdjhzYLFkM6zZDz_6KkmMEjnbpAjeZudJAr4mCEkr4k3FIndSGDuq3CtakhJ9oh8uap5LmBqVttBOaaG3XNloQnburOFnF3v2YKv23Qo4QHNVWAbK6c_3SAgi35fCqx_qnNK4vlz3bu_3ZJM_rUZOmUwkZLXUohQ7Vo/s320/Screenshot%202023-08-07%20040548.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The purple/pink area is where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the greatest risk.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>ALL severe weather types (damaging wind, hail and tornadoes) will be possible with the storms this afternoon. Of course, damaging wind will be the greatest threat, but low level shear is such that tornadoes can also spin up either in a line of storms, or in discrete cells that may form ahead of a more organized line. </p><p>The 0z high-resolution NAM model depicts a very dangerous line of thunderstorms raking through the area in the early evening hours (see below).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpwAfADs2I_MPZ6eN9VFvK6IBSlrr7oERQ9WNg6xgDl3PsQ8BMtKNb7YREJevn00k37VoarG5CeUGU77yvwBuLJD2wkdBoG4YjucSZLDUADNWP1vJT2yyF5NdErPSKrFBUTE_kiCLw7Ao0xLZih9wt0hXRcw_CtoFjdzYShmO5xWPttpQBrPCHVkI2P8FM/s688/Screenshot%202023-08-07%20040905.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="688" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpwAfADs2I_MPZ6eN9VFvK6IBSlrr7oERQ9WNg6xgDl3PsQ8BMtKNb7YREJevn00k37VoarG5CeUGU77yvwBuLJD2wkdBoG4YjucSZLDUADNWP1vJT2yyF5NdErPSKrFBUTE_kiCLw7Ao0xLZih9wt0hXRcw_CtoFjdzYShmO5xWPttpQBrPCHVkI2P8FM/s320/Screenshot%202023-08-07%20040905.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>One thing to keep in mind is that often times, storms tend to develop or come through the area a bit ahead of schedule. Therefore, while some modeling suggests 6-8pm as a timeframe for worst weather for the immediate metro area, I would be inclined to think it could be a bit earlier than that. Nonetheless, the time period from 2pm until 8pm bears watching - as any time in that timeframe could feature dangerous weather.</p><p>People will want to have multiple ways to receive watches, warnings and alerts. There will also be a non-zero flash flooding threat as well...so please DO NOT drive through any flooded roadways. Don't become a statistic. </p><p>I would strongly suggest if possible, not being on the roads whenever this line of storms forms/moves through. Traffic is likely to be interrupted by both the rainfall as well as any associated damage. Power outages will also be likely in areas that receive the most significant weather. Charge your phones and portable battery packs NOW - so that you have them in the event of an outage. </p><p>Stay safe! </p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-12361860003392310342022-03-11T10:22:00.001-08:002022-03-11T10:22:25.269-08:00Sneaky March Snow to Impact Area<p> March can be known for big swings in weather conditions. Apparently this March is no different! While the month was very mild and even warm to start, a significant storm system will impact the eastern part of the country this weekend. Rain, snow and plummeting temperatures will all be on the table...not to mention high winds behind the storm! </p><p>Of course...March snow can be finnicky due to increasing sun angle as well as average temperatures rising with each day. That being said, March snow is NOT unusual and lately has seemingly been a frequent occurrence in the region. Elevation will play a big role in this particular system (mountain will get more snow). </p><p>The 3km NAM model shows precipitation moving into the area tonight as rain. But as temperatures drop behind the area of low pressure, most areas change to snow. Areas to the west first, followed by areas close to the I-95 corridor. There may be a window for potentially heavy snow during the mid-morning hours. If there is to be accumulation, it will be during that time. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiS2rsJ9A0QEfgJb7SmgGuw60gRffHvLirb4Q6FbosgAJhDEgFUg-bQeaxllxdvljlPSeXH3IQXRAVMLcnXTb_j080NMaj3Vi36mR13OCtfKgZ992ygThBlRUZO013-rX8nC0ow1clC7j54mzI6AIBzjxO2LyypvE6fHDrj8874FA8J0qDOZDXNp08JMQ=s800" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiS2rsJ9A0QEfgJb7SmgGuw60gRffHvLirb4Q6FbosgAJhDEgFUg-bQeaxllxdvljlPSeXH3IQXRAVMLcnXTb_j080NMaj3Vi36mR13OCtfKgZ992ygThBlRUZO013-rX8nC0ow1clC7j54mzI6AIBzjxO2LyypvE6fHDrj8874FA8J0qDOZDXNp08JMQ=w640-h480" width="640" /></a><br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 12z (3/11) run of the 3km NAM model shows precipitation starting as rain before changing to snow. Some of the snow could be heavy during the mid-morning on Saturday.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="text-align: left;">Warm antecedent conditions, increasing sun angle and the quick duration of the event will preclude a high risk of accumulation on area roads. However, the snow may come down heavy enough to make roads slippery and slushy for a period. The best chances for this will be to the north and west of the cities. </p><p style="text-align: left;">This is certainly an event where grassy or elevated surfaces may receive several inches of snow while roads stay mainly wet. It would still be wise to prepare to stay off the roads until the afternoon Saturday.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSFkrqU9NT5Io_tvBtkMT4WmyuYjA_sWE-Jj29MgxO5LQA_1i5XkX2YlOWMCt8XzpxtigsvRWOh44SlgFCO6sSjbp__CTOtGZSp8z-x_a12uSTnPaDaXWJoBGr9k1WO5FDyYoCjy_eN4xPDRGAzgbWkiaxa1YuBDhMpsNM6yfABUeYb8RlDSXamKH7zA=s800" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSFkrqU9NT5Io_tvBtkMT4WmyuYjA_sWE-Jj29MgxO5LQA_1i5XkX2YlOWMCt8XzpxtigsvRWOh44SlgFCO6sSjbp__CTOtGZSp8z-x_a12uSTnPaDaXWJoBGr9k1WO5FDyYoCjy_eN4xPDRGAzgbWkiaxa1YuBDhMpsNM6yfABUeYb8RlDSXamKH7zA=w640-h480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 12z (3/11) run of the 3km NAM showing snow accumulation potential even into the metro areas. This may be overdone by a bit. Nonetheless, a couple inches of snow is possible on mainly grassy surfaces.</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: left;">The other factor that will be a part of this storm are the winds. Due to the strength and deepening of the low pressure system, a strong pressure gradient (the difference between high and low pressures) will exist behind the storm. Some wind gusts at, or above 50mph are possible. If snow is wet and accumulates on trees/powerlines, some damage and outages could result. </p><p style="text-align: left;">All in all, this has the potential to be an impactful storm system for the reasons outlined above. Temperatures will be quite cold on Saturday night (especially in areas that have snow cover on the ground). All that being said, temperatures will quickly moderate (this will NOT be a long cold shot) and next week will feature 60+ degree temperatures. This could (and likely is) the last true gasp of winter...although it is entirely possible another cold shot or two could come later in the month or even into April. </p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-6711893155700298312022-01-02T07:12:00.002-08:002022-01-02T07:12:51.050-08:00Sneaky Snowstorm to Kickoff the New YearWhat appeared to be a minor storm system sliding to the south and east of the area has gradually shifted north and west in the past day or two. Some parts of the region may be looking at a plowable snowfall late tonight and into tomorrow morning. With that said, the level of uncertainty is VERY high with this setup - only a few miles may make a significant difference in the amount of snow that is received. <div><br /></div><div>Some key points that will be important - </div><div><br /></div><div>1) This is a relatively fast moving storm system. At any given location - the snow may fall for less than 12 hours (some guidance is even shorter). </div><div><br /></div><div>2) Areas south and east are currently favored for the heaviest snowfall totals. </div><div><br /></div><div>3) The warm temperatures and wet ground preceding this system will likely cut down a little bit on snow totals.</div><div><br /></div><div>4) There will be a very, very sharp cutoff in the snowfall to the northwest. Exactly where this cutoff sets up will be important for exact snowfall at any given location. This could be a situation where Frederick, MD receives only a coating or flurries, while areas on the southern half of the Capital Beltway receive 6 inches or more. </div><div><br /></div><div>A full analysis post will be coming later today. </div>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-44883612562475038672021-08-31T14:55:00.002-07:002021-08-31T14:55:22.009-07:00Ida's Remnants to Impact Region<p> Hurricane Ida battered portions of the Gulf Coast (particularly Louisiana) over the weekend and into the early parts of the work week. While the actual storm system is no longer a hurricane (or even a tropical storm)...the threat to life and property will continue into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. </p><p>The most substantial and widespread threat from Ida's remnants will be the flooding risk. There is a very large area with a high risk of excessive rainfall outlined by the WPC. Rainfall amounts of 6+ inches (locally even higher) will occur. The biggest risk for flooding will lie well north and west of the DC/Baltimore corridor. However, some risk for flash flooding will still be present due to the tropical airmass. </p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtdXf6CkbfKL8in3-zki_13wY62a9lSB81K1n5tIRUvSvamUSOmeAx3gS6XFD2cHMlerm1Hi2TRW1Ocn9jhjbYF6bRii6BvxWh6JfLXQABWrUcMa8RL5IqFiX93Yqup7cAQybLQXBPlMnC/s800/98ewbg.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="800" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtdXf6CkbfKL8in3-zki_13wY62a9lSB81K1n5tIRUvSvamUSOmeAx3gS6XFD2cHMlerm1Hi2TRW1Ocn9jhjbYF6bRii6BvxWh6JfLXQABWrUcMa8RL5IqFiX93Yqup7cAQybLQXBPlMnC/w400-h280/98ewbg.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A high risk of excessive rainfall is in place in portions of Pennsylvania and into the NE US.</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>Regardless of the placement of the heaviest rain...many areas have been receiving significant rainfall over the past few weeks. This may lead to flooding even in areas that do not get the highest totals.</p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSTrH5tk8qRhxhgbVG-VPBAK_KX1sohOA6cxA3fYGWhFzHWfdXYxdg-Hu1tYYiLKaGvNubcSphpinpCWElV7uavyqc1_K_Vs2LAvCu0L3MtXa1ZmtyNNbCyIYanW-B0vKMRNfojnjvtJge/s1279/MARFC.FOP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1279" data-original-width="900" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSTrH5tk8qRhxhgbVG-VPBAK_KX1sohOA6cxA3fYGWhFzHWfdXYxdg-Hu1tYYiLKaGvNubcSphpinpCWElV7uavyqc1_K_Vs2LAvCu0L3MtXa1ZmtyNNbCyIYanW-B0vKMRNfojnjvtJge/w450-h640/MARFC.FOP.png" width="450" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Significant river flooding will become likely in the regions that receive significant rainfall. Big rivers like the Potomac may take a day or two (or longer) to crest. Therefore, flooding will remain a risk even after the rainfall ends. </td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>The next threat will be from tornadoes. The shear profile and instability will be conducive for bands of storms to form in the warm sector. Unfortunately, these parameters may line up just right for an elevated threat of tornadoes centered in the DC/Baltimore area and then over to the Eastern Shore. </p><p>While 10% may not sound like a big risk - these are severe weather probabilities based on the background probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Therefore, a 10% risk represents a SUBSTANTIALLY higher than normal probability of a tornado. This also is equivalent to the "enhanced" category of tiers from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). </p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4pBocwns4jJgi04JMGUoeoD4JwSAskdG0hK4FnxUyFFd_tHeg4Y5v-LFUSCWM5kLwjb3j2tXjiddlbExpLadjQYHGGNeY3_mS-pG5NYJRceW8dR2g4NBIdTKQyEa-kSwa4iqYUhLFDfzN/s2048/E-I-2_kUUAMplAv.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1810" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4pBocwns4jJgi04JMGUoeoD4JwSAskdG0hK4FnxUyFFd_tHeg4Y5v-LFUSCWM5kLwjb3j2tXjiddlbExpLadjQYHGGNeY3_mS-pG5NYJRceW8dR2g4NBIdTKQyEa-kSwa4iqYUhLFDfzN/w354-h400/E-I-2_kUUAMplAv.jpg" width="354" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A risk for tornadoes will exist in portions of the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow.</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>Synoptic (non-thunderstorm) winds may also be fairly gusty tomorrow. Some places may gust to 30-40mph at times. Places with saturated ground could see downed trees and power lines even in the absences of damage from storms. </p><p>Updates will be provided as needed - be sure you and your family has a severe weather action plan in place. </p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-3934673632115513982021-02-17T04:09:00.005-08:002021-02-17T04:09:52.807-08:00Significant Winter Storm to Impact Area<p>Odds are increasing that a high impact winter storm will impact the region beginning early tomorrow morning and continuing to tomorrow evening. Uncertainty still exists with regards to the potential for mixed precipitation, as well as where the heaviest banding will setup. Nonetheless, most if not everyone in the region will see eventful winter weather...and some will see substantial impacts to travel and activities. </p><p>Below, you'll see the 06z GFS model. As we get closer and closer to the event, I'd suggest weighing more heavily on the mesoscale models like the NAM, RGEM etc. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9aCFZTHMWN1GXYKpYKgt7KvqHuUdN-eMhmEdAsT12kw-njqPk8naC5RVI14Oyk6M42McxylK9bbbNrHrKgUFJouMe-vigtHEMFhBuda98902VBY6LPQcGhacwTqv6OEYP361mitzlMzl7/s1100/floop-gfs-2021021706.prateptype_cat.us_ma.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9aCFZTHMWN1GXYKpYKgt7KvqHuUdN-eMhmEdAsT12kw-njqPk8naC5RVI14Oyk6M42McxylK9bbbNrHrKgUFJouMe-vigtHEMFhBuda98902VBY6LPQcGhacwTqv6OEYP361mitzlMzl7/w400-h309/floop-gfs-2021021706.prateptype_cat.us_ma.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z GFS run from 2/17. This indicates a period of snow and then mixing for the DC area.</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />Next is the 06z NAM run followed by the 06z RGEM run (that is a Canadian regional model). </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirBtjjVUJFB3HGN8GiZNh4p9XSfl1-BNGfiLgHM3UzauN5rBOnALGGrcT59rdD-HY6rUO-dHS4CTYgRa-dcI3dl5jutMR5luRZ9ZIynxTvq5SBvADeJSIcI_DAdqkV1uPQ3B10Rk94DH7X/s1100/floop-nam-2021021706.ref1km_ptype.us_ma.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirBtjjVUJFB3HGN8GiZNh4p9XSfl1-BNGfiLgHM3UzauN5rBOnALGGrcT59rdD-HY6rUO-dHS4CTYgRa-dcI3dl5jutMR5luRZ9ZIynxTvq5SBvADeJSIcI_DAdqkV1uPQ3B10Rk94DH7X/w400-h309/floop-nam-2021021706.ref1km_ptype.us_ma.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z NAM run from 2/17. Another possible progression to the storm system.</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHiPvecAJkyP-fOC9BBannCxypP90AwGzpoqpcUEJ81G2fw8K4oYsqTQJ4ZrG1XEqe-9a9MKFmvCKDaKyrj5Aq4WAlh1nIxD6e4VvRJF295ee703FO8gMxWw0570ZnfdjRA2ZoIJI5_Krx/s1100/floop-rdps-2021021706.prateptype.us_ma.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHiPvecAJkyP-fOC9BBannCxypP90AwGzpoqpcUEJ81G2fw8K4oYsqTQJ4ZrG1XEqe-9a9MKFmvCKDaKyrj5Aq4WAlh1nIxD6e4VvRJF295ee703FO8gMxWw0570ZnfdjRA2ZoIJI5_Krx/w400-h309/floop-rdps-2021021706.prateptype.us_ma.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">06z RGEM model (a Canadian produced model). </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>At this point in time, I think it's safe to say that the favored areas to the north and west of the I-95 corridor will do the best in terms of snow totals. Sleet and freezing rain mix potential will cut down the snow totals closer to the metro area as well as to the south and east of the corridor. </p><p>That said, the less snow any one location sees, the more sleet and icing will be possible. Areas near Fredericksburg and running into Southern Maryland have the potential for a SIGNIFICANT icing event after an initial burst of snow. In these areas, there's even the chance at icing accretion of in excess of a quarter inch. This could lead to power outages in areas hardest hit. </p><p>Conditions may vary greatly over relatively short distances. Thus, your exact location will have large impacts to your exact forecast. I'll do my best to break it down here - apologies if your exact location is not mentioned. </p><p><b><u>I-95 Corridor (including areas like Silver Spring, Laurel, and running up towards Baltimore)</u></b></p><p>2-4 inches of snowfall seems probable. After that, some accumulation of sleet (possibly significant) may occur to give a "crust" to the snow. Additionally, a little glaze (up to a tenth of an inch or so) will be possible to top it all off. A true, "kitchen sink" of precipitation types and NOT fun for driving or even walking. </p><p><b><u>North and West Zones (including areas like Frederick, Westminster, Sugarloaf Mountain, Damascus etc - think places like Frederick and Carroll County in MD and Loudoun in VA)</u></b></p><p>4-8 inches of snowfall with isolated totals to 10 inches. This area may not see much mixing at all - but a little sleet is possible - especially the further south and east you get (closer to the first zone up above). This area should see a storm system more heavily weighted towards snow. Power outage risk should be much lower for these places.</p><p><b><u>South and East Zones (including areas like Fredericksburg, Charles County, Calvert/St. Mary's)</u></b></p><p>1-4 inches of snowfall with the most likely being in the 1-3 range. Sleet may become the predominant precipitation type pretty quickly in this area. Even then, a transition to freezing rain may occur much sooner than the other areas listed. This is dangerous as it will create the potential for a significant ice storm component. At least a tenth of an inch of ice, with the potential for four tenths (perhaps even a half inch in spots) will be possible here. This will be enough to cause potential power outages and MAJOR travel concerns. Folks in this area should at least PREPARE for the potential of outages. </p><p>***</p><p>Of course, all of the forecast hinges on how deep and how far north the warm layer above the surface gets. Confidence is high that this storm will have a good supply of fresh cold air to work with at the surface. But there will be some warmer layers of the atmosphere up near the 700mb level that will be the cause of the mixed precip. If these layers are only thin and not too warm, sleet may be predominate in the mixing. However, if the warm layer is on the warmer or thicker side, freezing rain would become more probable. These are factors that are difficult to forecast even at shorter ranges. </p><p>Stay tuned for any refinements or updates to the forecast. This should be a pretty significant/high-impact winter storm for the region. There's the potential for more "waves" behind this system. It's possible these will favor plain rain, though. </p><p><br /></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-9466473908025323692021-02-10T04:38:00.002-08:002021-02-10T04:38:16.201-08:00Another Two Part Winter Event<p>The National Weather Service has posted a *Winter Weather Advisory* for most of the area for tonight into tomorrow. All indications are that a slug of snowfall will impact the area from this evening into tomorrow morning. That being said, most guidance has converged on lower snow totals than were seen as being possible earlier in the week. Even so, the Euro model still indicates a shot at low-end warning criteria. In general, I think the NWS call for 1-3 inches of snow tonight is solid. I think it could push into the 2-4 inch range in spots that get better snowfall rates. </p><p>The second wave looks to miss the DC-Baltimore corridor to the south. However, it's not out of the range of possibilities for this to trend back north. This second part of the system would be from later on Thursday and into Friday. </p><p><b><i>TL;DR - A general 1-3 inches for much of the area tonight into tomorrow. Roads may be dangerous for travel. Some areas could see a bit higher. The second wave is still uncertain but for now, looks to miss. </i></b></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-49320599161026559122021-02-09T03:50:00.003-08:002021-02-09T03:50:35.039-08:00Long Duration Winter Storm Possible<p>Confidence is high that winter weather will impact the region once again this week. Currently, it appears that snow will develop from west to east across the area on Wednesday afternoon or evening. There continues to be some model disagreement with regards to exact details. This storm system is actually two "waves," and one may become dominant while one reduce in intensity. For this reason, while the odds for winter precipitation are high, the confidence in the exact timing or amounts are less certain. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTRBTNcTL8Y5XoAgzP6mGircVgHdaydmC1GOAoXG0jGdNUSu_5fheRbsESzFDTx2766HVrenXbyJYIsUtRy-ErEoae7kbl2CVpvuLsOpYmZMiT_N_ZBS6OvXFakjjW6MUbx0SJvGqwbOYr/s1100/06z+NAM+12km+Precip+Loop.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTRBTNcTL8Y5XoAgzP6mGircVgHdaydmC1GOAoXG0jGdNUSu_5fheRbsESzFDTx2766HVrenXbyJYIsUtRy-ErEoae7kbl2CVpvuLsOpYmZMiT_N_ZBS6OvXFakjjW6MUbx0SJvGqwbOYr/w400-h309/06z+NAM+12km+Precip+Loop.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The 06z NAM model run from early morning on 2/9. This shows the progression that this model thinks is possible for the winter weather event for Wed-Fri. (Source: Pivotal Weather)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd8wm7G2kSb-ZaQAHa_b16L_IdYqf5wpNzWTTE0d2-r-c58kpWNTQ39RPiFlXrP_Pnc4jVGeOHKQGdAruvk3n7ZtuRy4alkxrQzcTPwccFSlk5egp_b3peubn4RFJUm420hcVsBUylLxDE/s1100/RGEM+06z+Precip+Loop.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd8wm7G2kSb-ZaQAHa_b16L_IdYqf5wpNzWTTE0d2-r-c58kpWNTQ39RPiFlXrP_Pnc4jVGeOHKQGdAruvk3n7ZtuRy4alkxrQzcTPwccFSlk5egp_b3peubn4RFJUm420hcVsBUylLxDE/w400-h309/RGEM+06z+Precip+Loop.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The 06z RGEM model from early morning on 2/9. This shows another model's take on what may transpire with the storm system for Wed-Fri. (Source: Pivotal Weather)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio1OimMnUgixhjIQt0veZP415RyGbSPSURhBNtK7QY712EyM3T8E106EqAlTIQiqr6kAR_3YcJFn4-5DzAeGxxXR5aKMb-zp43pI1hejIWzOtGIeCkHpVY0vJwmIDYh4CpCxdReFejun86/s1100/06z+GFS+Precip+Loop.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio1OimMnUgixhjIQt0veZP415RyGbSPSURhBNtK7QY712EyM3T8E106EqAlTIQiqr6kAR_3YcJFn4-5DzAeGxxXR5aKMb-zp43pI1hejIWzOtGIeCkHpVY0vJwmIDYh4CpCxdReFejun86/w400-h309/06z+GFS+Precip+Loop.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The 06z GFS model run from early on 2/9. This is just another example of another forecast model trying to crunch the numbers to determine what may happen for our next winter storm. (Source: Pivotal Weather)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />You can see from the above forecast model loops, that the timing and intensity varies from one model to the next. However, there is a good chance at 1" or more of snowfall areawide (with the usual exceptions perhaps being to the areas south and east of the metro corridor). I'd even go farther and say that the chance for 2" or more are also quite high. Beyond that, a lot will rely on how potent each of the waves turns out to be in reality. This could be yet another situation of a winter storm that has a slug of snow, a lull and then perhaps additional snowfall with wave two. </p><p>There is a chance that this could be a 4-8" snowstorm when all is said and done. Some mixing will be possible to the south and east. </p><p>Taking a blend of various models gives the area a very healthy snowstorm. <b><i>For now...I'd forecast 2+ inches with this system and leave it at that until some additional clarity is given by short term forecasting. </i></b></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1BZFDPtmocbCVA-MahuymLgqIg6DhT4wlXzos8XWPYV8L-3nhlTz33j3lgFz1QlzctWF7cshdNxx5FHPECL-8mQLNFK-WlRCWNqXJfKMk30fFwkuqsKzExRKredG7Be7mBXijzEnkdMvd/s1100/NBM+Total+Snowfall+Forecast.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1BZFDPtmocbCVA-MahuymLgqIg6DhT4wlXzos8XWPYV8L-3nhlTz33j3lgFz1QlzctWF7cshdNxx5FHPECL-8mQLNFK-WlRCWNqXJfKMk30fFwkuqsKzExRKredG7Be7mBXijzEnkdMvd/w400-h309/NBM+Total+Snowfall+Forecast.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"National Blend of Models" product from Pivotal Weather. This is a blended map showing what a blend of various weather models thinks will occur. This *could* be on the high end IF the system becomes weaker than modeled.</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />Looking even further ahead...there appears to be winter storm threats (very low confidence forecast at this time) for the weekend and then again Tue/Wed of next week. There's some early indication that significant ice could be in play for the weekend system...but of course it is too early to say with any sort of certainty. </p><p>The bottom line is that we should continue to see a parade of at least THREATS for winter storms. Whether these pan out remains to be seen. However, the pattern certainly supports continued attacks by Old Man Winter. I'll continue to keep you updated as each system gets closer in time. </p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-62946143937393548362021-02-06T11:57:00.001-08:002021-02-06T11:57:09.108-08:00Winter Storm Warning for Tonight* Quick hitting winter storm to impact the area overnight *<div><br /></div><div>Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for most of the DC/Baltimore area for tonight. Snowfall from a fast moving storm system will move into the area after midnight. By sunrise, most of the area should be seeing snowfall...and some could be heavy at times. Some rain and/or mixing is possible mainly south and east of the I-95 corridor. The snowfall will be ending and departing the area by the early afternoon. </div><div><br /></div><div>Due to the potential for a few heavy bands of snow...this system may drop between three and six inches in a narrow stripe in the metro area. Keep in mind...only small adjustments could shift this area of heavier snowfall north and west or east and south. </div><div><br /></div><div>Temperatures will be on the rise Sunday afternoon, so plowing and melting should allow roads to become quickly passable again. That being said, the snow will be heavy enough to cause significant travel problems on the roads during the morning. I'd suggest staying off the roads until the afternoon. </div><div><br /></div><div>No fancy maps this time, as this will be a quick post for a quick hitting storm. </div><div><br /></div><div>Looking ahead, the pattern will support additional chances for significant winter weather during the later part of the coming week. But we'll dive more into that as the potential gets closer in time. </div>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-1379517882292123952021-02-01T16:03:00.003-08:002021-02-01T16:05:51.346-08:00Storm Winding Down - What's Next? [VIDEO]<p>Note from Pulse Weather: The video that goes along with this video is included both here, and at the bottom of this post for your convenience. The details in the text are covered in the video edition as well.</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nRLH_mdLYo">What's Next for DC's Winter? VIDEO</a></p><p>The current storm is starting to wind down across the area. I'll describe that storm system as a bit of an odd one. This particular type of storm is classified as something called a "Miller B" storm. Miller Bs are characterized by a primary low pressure system heading into the Ohio Valley and then redeveloping or transferring to the coast. Most of the time, the Washington, DC area tends to get a little "screwed" by these types of storms as they often develop the coastal just a little too late. </p><p>Areas along the Mason-Dixon Line were treated to some great wraparound snowfall this afternoon. Totals there have really ramped up. Totals locally in Montgomery County and the DC/Baltimore area have been more tempered. It was an odd storm that spread light wintry precip out in a span of a few full days. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyy7qqu7p1eXVdGAkL2Z3RmnJsGOwT6PdPl4de4LmELjAEP89DeWpXgvRUmdNqvM3DolwiOLxLE7jKAPGDYt1s3EacS6NiKqFuJb2DzUwSQ_FvBIX6wTbBIZjUpwEq2RFPXw-iVHZkYZA1/s700/Snow+Totals+LWX.PNG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="598" data-original-width="700" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyy7qqu7p1eXVdGAkL2Z3RmnJsGOwT6PdPl4de4LmELjAEP89DeWpXgvRUmdNqvM3DolwiOLxLE7jKAPGDYt1s3EacS6NiKqFuJb2DzUwSQ_FvBIX6wTbBIZjUpwEq2RFPXw-iVHZkYZA1/w400-h341/Snow+Totals+LWX.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Snowfall totals as shown by a map from the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia (LWX). This image is courtesy of their website. Click for full size image. </td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>Snow showers may continue through the night and into tomorrow in spots. Some gusty winds may also be a factor - particularly to the north and east. </p><p>So...What's next? <b><i>[NOTE: A video is included at the bottom of this video for those not wanting to read a wall of text]</i></b></p><p>1) Moderating temperatures later in the week: Later this week, in the wake of our current storm system, temperatures will be able to rebound a bit into the 40s. This will be ahead of the next weather maker over the coming weekend. </p><p>2) Significant dump of Arctic air with the potential for an associated batch of snow squalls: During the coming weekend, a significant batch of frigid air will come out of Canada and move eastward to impact the area. There's a chance that a secondary front behind the initial one could produce snow squalls similar to the Valentine's Day snow squalls in 2015. This is discussed in more detail in the video below. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmmCZ3AGd9wRcggRmPT1uASlJmlKsjChxzzhg8uBF4AC9f-our6YY4RdjJi36mA1faiR6PY6wnstGoBMZjrFet0DRYCgh_MP1ZMaNhvBMJdqYoAjoQ7HTQp6pEfC2PbUoDegIGLDTkvB4I/s1024/GFS+CONUS+Arctic+Blast+Map.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1024" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmmCZ3AGd9wRcggRmPT1uASlJmlKsjChxzzhg8uBF4AC9f-our6YY4RdjJi36mA1faiR6PY6wnstGoBMZjrFet0DRYCgh_MP1ZMaNhvBMJdqYoAjoQ7HTQp6pEfC2PbUoDegIGLDTkvB4I/w400-h272/GFS+CONUS+Arctic+Blast+Map.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Robust shot of Arctic air shown dumping out of Canada on the 18z GFS model run. (Source: TropicalTidbits) - Click on the image for the full size. </td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>3) Storm system for the 2/8 or 2/9 timeframe: After the dump of Arctic air, a potential storm system will develop in the southern half of the country. Depending on the exact evolution of various upper level features, this storm system could pose a threat for significant winter weather in the area. Of course, being seven days out increases the amount of uncertainty. </p><p>4) Follow up storm system for the period around 2/10: Immediately in the wake of the potential storm system for 2/8-9...another storm system may develop in the Gulf Coast states and track along the eastern seaboard. Being 10 or so days out significantly decreases confidence in any one model solution at this time - but this could pose a threat for follow-up winter weather for the region. </p><p>All of these potential winter weather threats are due in part to a very favorable upper air pattern. A favorable -NAO block is forecast to be in place near Greenland. Of course, details will be easier to forecast as we get closer, but the threat is there for long lead winter storms. Occasionally, in this type of pattern, confidence can be higher from longer leads due to blocking and pattern stability. We'll see if things are more clear than they were with this most recent winter storm. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvdBix5AEjbUCrppLasWS8n7wv80aw0QKklfEmzDPCzIAYyYJjJjRbAAWs8S4_25IpmKySnjXsIwUqysH2rLKyl-fblEIjkiZaBabmUndfay8AfYOwnDjlRuyc54nmj4T_9d-mAsg_X-IC/s1024/GFS+500mb+pattern.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1024" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvdBix5AEjbUCrppLasWS8n7wv80aw0QKklfEmzDPCzIAYyYJjJjRbAAWs8S4_25IpmKySnjXsIwUqysH2rLKyl-fblEIjkiZaBabmUndfay8AfYOwnDjlRuyc54nmj4T_9d-mAsg_X-IC/w400-h249/GFS+500mb+pattern.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">500mb pattern as depicted by the GFS Ensembles from the 18z run on 2/1/2021. (Source: TropicalTidbits) - Click on the image for the full size. </td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>The big area of positive height anomalies shown near Greenland is what is referred to as a -NAO. Negative anomalies in this area would be a +NAO. There are other indices to monitor as well. The PNA and AO are other factor. Perhaps a winter storm hunter "crash course" would be an interesting post for the future. </p><p>Check out the video that goes along with this latest post!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5nRLH_mdLYo" width="320" youtube-src-id="5nRLH_mdLYo"></iframe></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-24607787181563585132021-01-31T16:49:00.003-08:002021-01-31T16:49:23.133-08:00Winter Storm Update - 7:30pm<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z0245z6g5Dw" width="320" youtube-src-id="Z0245z6g5Dw"></iframe></div><br /><p></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-68998509563929172812021-01-31T10:45:00.003-08:002021-01-31T10:45:52.828-08:00Winter Storm Update - 1:30pm<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T915byouIXU" width="320" youtube-src-id="T915byouIXU"></iframe></div><br /><p></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-83156390470301551462021-01-31T05:46:00.003-08:002021-01-31T05:46:38.354-08:00Winter Storm Update - 8:30am<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GbWU7PcBmHo" width="320" youtube-src-id="GbWU7PcBmHo"></iframe></div><p></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-6558002897133817802021-01-29T16:22:00.001-08:002021-01-29T16:22:25.222-08:00Winter Set to Grab Headlines - Snow On the Way<p>Snow enthusiasts rejoice! After a long gap between the December dose of winter precipitation and now, we are poised to get a visit from Old Man Winter! Despite lowest sun angle and shortest day length occurring in December, many people forget that our true "peak" winter weather climatology is January/February. Check your calendar - this storm is no exception! </p><p>Speaking with a bit of technical weather jargon - a trough in the atmosphere will approach the area from the west. Exactly how this transpires will determine how the weather down at the surface level will unfold. That's the super "easy" way to explain things. In reality, the nuances that will go into producing a snowstorm for the region are much more complicated. </p><p>The models have seemingly come into better agreement in terms of there being a snow event. However, key differences remain (as usual) in the specifics. Specific small scale features will only be resolved closer to "game time" and some features like heavy snow bands are always narrow and will potentially mean the difference between one location receiving a few inches and another receiving double-digit snowfall. </p><p>The timing of the storm system is expected to come in two parts. The first part, which should be decent for the entire area, will be a slug of snowfall that will arrive Sunday between the very early hours and 7am or so (depending on exactly where you are). This will arrive from southwest to northeast. This portion of the storm appears to be fairly well agreed upon on most guidance and may drop between two and six inches. </p><p>At that point, there may be a tapering off or lull in the storm. During this time, there is a chance that areas south and east (and even perhaps into the close in suburbs mix with sleet or rain. However, precipitation may be so light during this time, it may not appreciably bring down totals. </p><p>Then, during the day on Monday, as the low pressure relocates off the coast, potentially significant bands of snowfall will likely form in or near our area to the northwest of the low pressure center. These bands WILL occur, but the exact orientation and geographical location of them is uncertain. Areas that get under sustained bands of snow will add significant snowfall to the totals from Sunday. Areas that lie between snow bands in areas of subsidence (sinking air) may receive lower totals. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsMO5lVnIQgK9B2oL9sPflxRFDJy3vXTTKHI4WyA_aLZmZpAut_WEXxDqEuHZ-50AnCRRS0Z7Mw0618I-XxU_ngOrBZAS1MpmYl-Ud8HxWW2Ye3SRqNjWqPkl6_qJvxuIlqDQd20Nio3Uy/s1100/18zGFS+Precip+Type+ANIM.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsMO5lVnIQgK9B2oL9sPflxRFDJy3vXTTKHI4WyA_aLZmZpAut_WEXxDqEuHZ-50AnCRRS0Z7Mw0618I-XxU_ngOrBZAS1MpmYl-Ud8HxWW2Ye3SRqNjWqPkl6_qJvxuIlqDQd20Nio3Uy/w400-h309/18zGFS+Precip+Type+ANIM.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The early evening run (18z) of the GFS model showing a possible progression of the system. Note that the GFS often does not resolve temperature profiles well during setups like this. Thus, the mixing/changeover to rain may not be as pronounced as shown. (Source: PivotalWeather)</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />The snowfall from the Monday portion could add double (or more) the totals from the Sunday portion. Ultimately, this should become more clear as we get closer in time to the start of the storm. </p><p>The early evening model runs have shown a general theme that we are getting a snowstorm. But as mentioned above - the details are scattered around and focused in different parts of the region depending on what model you're looking at. </p><p>Storm totals (from both portions of the storm) are expected to be AT LEAST three or four inches across most of the area. The exceptions will of course be to the south and east of the I-95 corridor as usual. However, totals in isolated locations (that get under heavy bands) could be double-digits. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAJemodIfMB07QORXqpfR-saAsa8GBN5hKqWC_3z6U5hU4827JmZkrkmN201AFTGRNs0ergPCsv1viS3udhYjvtqGnSb2_n5qIKHzc5A3hEOlPm1qA9vblEN9oTKfhQ1jDM8yPZBRswLu_/s1100/18z+GFS+Kuchera+Total+Snow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAJemodIfMB07QORXqpfR-saAsa8GBN5hKqWC_3z6U5hU4827JmZkrkmN201AFTGRNs0ergPCsv1viS3udhYjvtqGnSb2_n5qIKHzc5A3hEOlPm1qA9vblEN9oTKfhQ1jDM8yPZBRswLu_/w400-h309/18z+GFS+Kuchera+Total+Snow.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Early evening (18z) GFS model run total snowfall for both portions of the storm. Note that the resolution of the GFS model may not 100% capture exact banding locations. (Source: PivotalWeather)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXz7ty-l30KNc8KBb0hqVLB_XFIOjgxYLoSywE0xWr1P1RLDuEWoKWL69hs6SJ2N5_0Jts1oXwNoDfBUTp_1yEXVEPVOgavZWoFt-VQPu5xdAKkTXp7_LYMPsfb2q47f7BmEuBoi1fNHAg/s1100/18z+RGEM+Kuchera+Snowfall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXz7ty-l30KNc8KBb0hqVLB_XFIOjgxYLoSywE0xWr1P1RLDuEWoKWL69hs6SJ2N5_0Jts1oXwNoDfBUTp_1yEXVEPVOgavZWoFt-VQPu5xdAKkTXp7_LYMPsfb2q47f7BmEuBoi1fNHAg/w400-h309/18z+RGEM+Kuchera+Snowfall.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Early evening (18z) RGEM (a regional Canadian model) snow totals. Note that this model is higher resolution and can show areas where banding may setup more exact than the GFS model above. However, the banding may not end up being in those spots at all. (Source: PivotalWeather)</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />I'll be posting a more refined snow map tomorrow morning with some additional details once we have a few more cycles of the models to analyze and digest.</p><p>Essentially, you can see above that while the general idea of a significant snowstorm is seemingly "locked in" - the details are going to be what determines the winners and losers in this system. With more model data, and observations of how the storm develops tomorrow night and Sunday, we'll be able to determine who is going to "jackpot" </p><p>Stay tuned! </p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-66716739046683708142021-01-25T05:02:00.003-08:002021-01-25T05:02:49.369-08:00Taste of Winter On Tap<p> Snow lovers will be disappointed by how the next two potential winter weather events have trended in the models. What appeared to be a week where winter might have roared back with a vengeance, has trended to a much more tame situation. We'll go in-depth below. </p><p>Late in the work week last week, it appeared that a minor to moderate winter weather event would impact the area tonight into tomorrow. Additionally, it seemed that there was significant potential for a larger storm later in the week. However, due to some complex factors in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, both events have trended downwards. </p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">With regards to the winter weather event tonight and tomorrow - temperatures are quite marginal. While favored areas to the north and west (think the I-81 corridor) may see some icing and snowfall, the overall theme of this storm system is minor. There may be a a slushy inch or two even close to the metro area, along with a little dose of icing as well. However, I would think that by tomorrow afternoon, most areas will have safe travel close to the cities. This will be more of a nuisance storm than anything. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvwcypl6Af57Ss7tjUWQfxEJZIQUiaDqU91JkvpcKBzvZNoIggEfiKw9FhCC2BmpK0eHTqNvgjQiBkSifzkhwi3dXCA7e3WiUMTP_0I_fGOAq7v540rrzDJvhes6O-wZepOrjxerhYBYJq/s800/NAMNSTMA_prec_kuchsnow_026.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvwcypl6Af57Ss7tjUWQfxEJZIQUiaDqU91JkvpcKBzvZNoIggEfiKw9FhCC2BmpK0eHTqNvgjQiBkSifzkhwi3dXCA7e3WiUMTP_0I_fGOAq7v540rrzDJvhes6O-wZepOrjxerhYBYJq/w400-h300/NAMNSTMA_prec_kuchsnow_026.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">High resolution NAM model showing potential snowfall primarily along and north of the Potomac River. This may even be a bit on the generous side. A slushy inch or two is certainly possible, however. (Source: College of Dupage)</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">You can see above that the high resolution NAM model shows a little snow accumulation focused north of the Potomac River. Even so, that accumulation should be relatively minor and slushy. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx-eyyJNXNgV7amhpBsZ8Pt73aH864TljHrQI_3GTLlmQwQyIPVpYBAOyt6afDCk22xdBWYx7Pr9D1ro7M9BwgFM0Fsv_gt0X6FdpfZVtTRDmnjqavQ6Y2RAJ3z1wD6R-7Myn_gFGrxbo-/s800/NAMNSTMA_prec_frzra_028.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx-eyyJNXNgV7amhpBsZ8Pt73aH864TljHrQI_3GTLlmQwQyIPVpYBAOyt6afDCk22xdBWYx7Pr9D1ro7M9BwgFM0Fsv_gt0X6FdpfZVtTRDmnjqavQ6Y2RAJ3z1wD6R-7Myn_gFGrxbo-/w400-h300/NAMNSTMA_prec_frzra_028.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Freezing rain forecast from the high resolution NAM model. A little icing is possible, especially to the west in the favored colder areas. (Source: College of Dupage)</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">Icing may be a story as well. Of course, even the tiniest amount of freezing rain accumulation can cause mayhem on the roads. The good news is that temperatures aren't frigid for this storm. Icing is still a concern, but as soon as temperatures rise above the freezing mark, things should improve. Perhaps the I-81 corridor will see a more prolonged period of icing conditions. Regardless, use caution on the roads during the precipitation, and be careful particularly on the bridges and overpasses. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The attention will then turn to later this week. What appeared to be our first chance of a big snowstorm has petered out. Instead, a storm system looks likely to pass to the south. We may see some flurries around, but at the moment, the chances for substantial snow are going way down. Snow lovers will be stuck waiting again. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTRZKOnmj5L71I8-hlJWMDBAOLnafQOkgA4gm8xiQXyMNZ5hE1gK0hMDCYnhJ4nT6u-g6RpdDb30g8LOfgJ1A6gG_negkIK_KAPxwUUMWhgzSq-vptcGz7VQ0MA0A0mS7L9fFdnBJJuI7P/s1024/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTRZKOnmj5L71I8-hlJWMDBAOLnafQOkgA4gm8xiQXyMNZ5hE1gK0hMDCYnhJ4nT6u-g6RpdDb30g8LOfgJ1A6gG_negkIK_KAPxwUUMWhgzSq-vptcGz7VQ0MA0A0mS7L9fFdnBJJuI7P/w400-h301/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z GFS model run from Monday morning. You can see a low pressure area and its associated precipitation well off the coast. This storm system was forecast to be much closer to the coast a few days ago. (Source: TropicalTidbits)</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">There are indications that the overall Northern Hemispheric pattern may remain semi favorable for potential snow events going forward, but the problem so far has been a lack of cold air across the entire continent. We'll see where February takes us! </p><br /><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p></p>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-30320431609846234042021-01-23T04:33:00.003-08:002021-01-23T04:34:15.389-08:00Winter May Make a Comeback<p>With the exception of a few flurries and the snow/mix event back in December, winter (other than some seasonably cold days and nights) has been largely absent this year. There have been multiple factors (and some bad luck) that have contributed to this. </p><p><i><u>Technical Discussion</u></i></p><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i>During the fall, the configuration of the upper level weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean caused warm air to essentially flood portions of North America. Our cold air "source" regions in Canada became essentially non-supportive to winter weather events. Even with storm systems tracking favorably for our region, there was simply no cold air to tap or drain into the area.</i></p></blockquote><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i>If you're a regular reader of weather blogs or discussions, you'll likely know that our best snowstorms tend to occur when certain atmospheric teleconnections are in the right configuration. Primarily, we look at the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Pacific North American oscillation (PNA). In an ideal world for snow, we'd have a negative NAO, negative AO and a positive PNA. It's also important to remember that we are in a La Nina pattern this winter, which is generally not as favorable for snow as a weak to moderate El Nino. </i></p><p></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i>Interestingly enough, we've had those oscillations in our favored spots for large sections of the winter. The problem is, the cold air source regions are just not that cold. This is improving, and this is part of the reason why we now have some winter weather threats to track.</i></p></blockquote><p><i><u>End of Technical Discussion</u></i></p><p>The first threat for winter weather will be from a storm system that will impact the area from Monday into Tuesday. As usual, the models will shift around until we are closer to the event start time. This particular system was "slipping away" as it appeared that it could be a very light event or a rain event (or both!). However, there has been some tendency in the past few model run cycles to bring the event back to a point where we could see some wintry precipitation. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8qic18h-g2VFGmBFzm0ZtgCOtTMVRtzp86ho9AzUqfOC7Ehx0naXiXHWyiTkoVaVB_wYnPM6Jk7LtJ_NDXUTmr1Ea3XiiTLwbOgo6gxbskuKxuExXSk-za2rQrXLBgePxj1lSE-OQK0od/s1024/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh72_trend.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8qic18h-g2VFGmBFzm0ZtgCOtTMVRtzp86ho9AzUqfOC7Ehx0naXiXHWyiTkoVaVB_wYnPM6Jk7LtJ_NDXUTmr1Ea3XiiTLwbOgo6gxbskuKxuExXSk-za2rQrXLBgePxj1lSE-OQK0od/w400-h301/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh72_trend.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The last 12 runs of the GFS model for the Mon/Tue winter weather potential. (Source: TropicalTidbits)</span></div><p>You can see in the above animation that the winter precipitation threat has bounced around a fair amount. Areas that are typically favored (north and west of the metro area and into the I-81 corridor) could see the best shot at winter weather. The unfortunate thing is that those areas may also see a significant icing event caused by freezing rain. Freezing rain is a tricky precipitation type (ptype) to forecast, so this won't be clear until closer to the event. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVGGExwAfvMOsydlWxBHOBBTY78h5PbgYXV8-31WzVsRBZgUZ6vJQpwTLLeoFrzPIvPM9G-Pre4Nlgx19hXoH0YX2EWJ7wzJWrIHBQEaxWZHuDIvPctX8BukgKS2fkOqpu-Jv-QgMlJCu8/s800/GFSMA_prec_frzra_105.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVGGExwAfvMOsydlWxBHOBBTY78h5PbgYXV8-31WzVsRBZgUZ6vJQpwTLLeoFrzPIvPM9G-Pre4Nlgx19hXoH0YX2EWJ7wzJWrIHBQEaxWZHuDIvPctX8BukgKS2fkOqpu-Jv-QgMlJCu8/w400-h300/GFSMA_prec_frzra_105.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Saturday, January 23 06z GFS model run showing potential freezing rain accumulation. (Source: College of Dupage)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />The image above shows the 06z GFS run (the early Saturday morning model cycle) freezing rain accumulation. It shows very damaging amounts of icing for parts of the higher elevations to the west. Even some icing shows up closer in to the DC/Baltimore areas. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit1bjDCX45b8e0os-0T4f5oj0q54SlGAcqpSFOjJ0MZamj_BizO1CieDn7ZYhylu29zMVwm2VKFn0sBhVgfhkGWjqL1jy3KBgJLTeC-nwVTwYadBfFKwp9klsbH6EKJuImqQu9chzkcD6D/s800/GFSMA_prec_kuchsnow_081.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit1bjDCX45b8e0os-0T4f5oj0q54SlGAcqpSFOjJ0MZamj_BizO1CieDn7ZYhylu29zMVwm2VKFn0sBhVgfhkGWjqL1jy3KBgJLTeC-nwVTwYadBfFKwp9klsbH6EKJuImqQu9chzkcD6D/w400-h300/GFSMA_prec_kuchsnow_081.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Saturday, January 23 06z GFS snowfall forecast. (Source: College of Dupage)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />Meanwhile, you can see snow accumulations look A LOT less impressive based on this run of the GFS. Of course, this is all still a fluid forecast and a lot can still change. For now, if you are WELL to the west of the metro area, it wouldn't hurt to prepare for some icing. Any forecast for destructive levels of icing should hold off for now until certainty is higher with the storm system. </p><p>Perhaps the more interesting aspect of the forecast is later in the week. Some model solutions suggest a another storm system will pass by to the west before transferring to the coast. This would be on or around Thursday. While the latest runs of the GFS model are showing a significant snowstorm for the region, other models are not yet biting on the event. Thus, we'll leave it as a note here - let's get through the Mon/Tue storm before we look too far into the next one. </p><p>Stay tuned! </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"> </p><p></p></blockquote>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-14636372953268841562020-04-12T04:57:00.000-07:002020-04-12T04:57:02.798-07:00Hazardous Weather Expected MondayBuckle up. Odds are increasing that a rather high impact weather system will cause several types of weather-related hazards across the region from tonight through tomorrow.<br />
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The trouble-making weather system is an area of low pressure that is currently developing and intensifying over the Plains. This system will track towards the Great Lakes region through tomorrow. The storm will be intensifying to a level that will cause significant impacts across large swaths of the nation (Ex: potential severe weather/tornado outbreak in the Dixie region today/tonight.<div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNj4ImDgzCdY6aMC_dgmGPc5GMfWbOtVSEfgTL9TzkL1pn82MGO8M_r1JlLj6vxzkwjFqF14ss2qEADITc8MCUSoCXy6x-0NKDdmk-ICjgNyNjDpl33nkiAyzj0R0k8MzqjHHS9K59NBd/s1600/namussfc09wbg.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="748" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNj4ImDgzCdY6aMC_dgmGPc5GMfWbOtVSEfgTL9TzkL1pn82MGO8M_r1JlLj6vxzkwjFqF14ss2qEADITc8MCUSoCXy6x-0NKDdmk-ICjgNyNjDpl33nkiAyzj0R0k8MzqjHHS9K59NBd/s400/namussfc09wbg.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sunday morning surface weather map from WPC.</td></tr>
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Impacts for the DC/Baltimore region will begin later tonight. There is the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall as the system's effects approach the area. Some rainfall totals in the area will be in the 1-2 inch range. The local National Weather Service (NWS) office indicates that isolated instances of flooding may occur, but the probability or spotty nature of this is not enough to warrant a flood watch at the moment. This could change, so stay tuned. All eyes then turn to the potential for severe weather on Monday. </div>
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Some uncertainty still exists about the amount of instability as well as the exact timing of the front/system. These factors will greatly impact the level of severe weather threat across the region. If the system is faster than anticipated, there will not be enough time for instability to develop ahead, and the severe storm threat may be muted or reduced. Currently, models are in decent agreement that there will be a window of time when instability can develop before the line of storms comes in. This would result in a decent threat for severe weather. If (this scenario is not particularly likely) the system slows a bit more than expected, a substantial threat for all modes of severe weather could transpire across the area. As it stands, areas in Virginia and into the Carolinas are already looking at this threat. Whether the best threat extends further north into our region remains to be seen. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Ty_mO-F22ot1beqxb_A6dAMGa6GUgWCrZFkmT-OPps3WetrwPrE27sjyqUmnaTm4WjwAaDhGJau6cxVf1CFfveLLbj1ZgnOW-Edjo2WeyYXBXOmGX-p84IRtggF412kTeJBBx8BgO4Sb/s1600/NAMNSTMA_con_cape180_036.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Ty_mO-F22ot1beqxb_A6dAMGa6GUgWCrZFkmT-OPps3WetrwPrE27sjyqUmnaTm4WjwAaDhGJau6cxVf1CFfveLLbj1ZgnOW-Edjo2WeyYXBXOmGX-p84IRtggF412kTeJBBx8BgO4Sb/s400/NAMNSTMA_con_cape180_036.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">One measure of instability on the NAM 3km model for Mon afternoon. Notice the pockets of instability in the area. If this verifies, a higher risk level from the Storm Prediction Center could be issued.</td></tr>
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Regardless of severe thunderstorms...an extreme wind field will be situated a few thousand feet off of the surface. Showers and heavy rainfall could mix these winds down to the surface even without strong storms. Winds at the 925mb level (a couple thousand feet up) and the 850mb level (about a mile up) are forecast to be anomalously strong. In fact, 925mb winds are 50-60 knots across the area for a time on Monday morning and early afternoon. 850mb winds approach 70-75 knots during the same time period. These winds could cause damage - and thus, the expectation is that the NWS will be posting wind advisories and/or high wind warnings to cover this threat. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7DWjLFMNklQfJUa1zuvGS2EgRe_TnDPFFQ02DxLL0USAINT9174CYRa3ORhQhGxMtMudiiGnRq6CS5bet206ZDryfw7OxQ5qaNSck3lORwIHPaki7w9Gn6G55bCZBL-FgMvSeqvmywaD/s1600/namconus_mslp_uv850_neus_34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7DWjLFMNklQfJUa1zuvGS2EgRe_TnDPFFQ02DxLL0USAINT9174CYRa3ORhQhGxMtMudiiGnRq6CS5bet206ZDryfw7OxQ5qaNSck3lORwIHPaki7w9Gn6G55bCZBL-FgMvSeqvmywaD/s400/namconus_mslp_uv850_neus_34.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">850mb winds from the NAM model for Monday morning. Credit: TropicalTidbits</td></tr>
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One factor that could enhance any damage caused by the wind is the heavy rainfall threat overnight tonight. Saturated ground could make it much easier for trees to be toppled. Have a severe weather plan in place. </div>
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SUMMARY NOTES:</div>
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Heavy rainfall threat tonight and into early AM tomorrow. </div>
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Wind damage threat during the morning and along with the front. </div>
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Conditional severe storm threat (dependent on instability levels)</div>
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Best odds for severe weather currently reside down into VA/Carolinas.</div>
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High impact event. Keep an eye on the sky. </div>
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I will be providing updates throughout the day today if anything changes. </div>
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The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-58580235219371026072019-05-22T07:45:00.000-07:002019-05-22T07:45:34.982-07:00Tough Forecast for Thursday - Storms PossibleAnother pleasant day is on tap for today. Low humidity and temperatures a bit higher than yesterday will make for a nice day. Wind will be a lot less of an issue today with only light winds across the area. Enjoy today...tomorrow will mark a return of warmer and significantly more humid conditions.<br />
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By tomorrow morning, dewpoints will be on the rise as they head up to the upper 60s and potentially even the lower 70s. This type of humidity is quite uncomfortable. Highs tomorrow will be well into the 80s. The humidity will make it feel like it is even warmer as well.<br />
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During the afternoon and evening, there is a chance of thunderstorms across the area. However, the various computer models disagree significantly on the coverage of thunderstorms. The best threat for storms (potentially severe) will be well north of the area into Pennsylvania and New York state. However, storms will also be possible across the DC/Baltimore area. IF storms do form and move across the area, the ingredients are in place for a potentially significant severe weather event. Again, best odds being to the north.<br />
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There is an "Enhanced" risk for severe storms outlined by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for extreme Northern Maryland and Pennsylvania. A lower risk is in place for the rest of the area. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats.Kenny Lorberhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09226923213152703381noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-11586350245313317792019-05-21T08:17:00.005-07:002019-05-21T08:17:58.037-07:00Strong Storms Possible ThursdayBeautiful weather is dominating the area today as Canadian high pressure is in control of our weather. Breezy conditions will persist throughout the day but winds will start to calm down towards sunset and into the evening. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s in the cooler suburbs to the low 60s in the urban centers.<br />
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The next chance at rainfall will be late Wednesday night and then on Thursday. Odds are not super high at this point...but there is a chance for severe weather. We are already outlooked in a day 3 risk for severe storms from the NWS Storm Prediction Center.<br />
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Moderate to strong instability will develop across the area on Thursday afternoon with warm air and dewpoints rising into the 60s. There will also be sufficient wind shear to sustain updrafts. However, forcing may be a bit limited and thus storm coverage is a big question mark. In fact, there are some models that leave our area mostly dry.<br />
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It is also worth noting, however, that sounding analogs indicate that there is an elevated risk for significant hail growth if storms are able to develop and grow upscale. It is too far out to say anything with any certainty.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1bB3NWVJvRNMn4rDqqyncuGFz6eNDkg81ll8ctkwqD3UlO1c0b2B2VnGqG2pfBlQjwgDMdDHKN4vq4ZeNFKWOpvYQRR48cTTkNsRLat1-SOm2DMfhyHNxCn8BThJXGe7xTerHopkfSVSM/s1600/NAMMA_con_sbcape_057.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1bB3NWVJvRNMn4rDqqyncuGFz6eNDkg81ll8ctkwqD3UlO1c0b2B2VnGqG2pfBlQjwgDMdDHKN4vq4ZeNFKWOpvYQRR48cTTkNsRLat1-SOm2DMfhyHNxCn8BThJXGe7xTerHopkfSVSM/s400/NAMMA_con_sbcape_057.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The NAM model showing pockets of moderate to strong instability in the area for Thursday afternoon. </td></tr>
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Something to keep an eye on regardless of the end result. Memorial Day forecasts will come into focus in the next day or two as well.Kenny Lorberhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09226923213152703381noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-51243895711670403282017-12-15T09:08:00.002-08:002017-12-15T12:34:30.216-08:0012/15 Snow Event (LIVE Updates)<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><b>***Live updates will be posted here regarding the light snow event expected this afternoon - the latest updates will be at the top, while the older updates will fall to the bottom of this post. ***</b></i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">------------------------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><u><b>3:34pm - </b></u></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Area roadways are slick in spots. However, the back edge of the snow is now moving through Northern Virginia and parts of Maryland. The snow should end from west to east over the next few hours. Use caution on the roads as black ice may have formed due to melting/refreezing of moisture. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><u>12:05pm - </u></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The radar is beginning to really blossom around the area. A large portion of the area is reporting either light flurries or very light snow at this time. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 7:00pm tonight. Due to cold conditions, slick spots will be possible on roadways during the afternoon and evening rush. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Additionally, several area school systems are closing early. However, Montgomery Co Schools are closing according to REGULAR schedules. </span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYerFoI7T2AXxWc3Sq7Z0Re7z3LN6_DXWF-7pIpRRMPwZ8gRqH6dkpxK2F26Jdn96PycVClFlEnM2ff1yF9cIyUEbBoynPTHsUYYpspUhKGNQ3bAzNJq4JtDRQhfpFN0XQWuQ4rrScMMLw/s1600/Snow2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="574" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYerFoI7T2AXxWc3Sq7Z0Re7z3LN6_DXWF-7pIpRRMPwZ8gRqH6dkpxK2F26Jdn96PycVClFlEnM2ff1yF9cIyUEbBoynPTHsUYYpspUhKGNQ3bAzNJq4JtDRQhfpFN0XQWuQ4rrScMMLw/s400/Snow2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radar shows snow developing across the area. The area of blue radar returns has the steadiest snow at the current time. Expect increasing coverage of the snow throughout the early afternoon. </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-29543177792580266632017-12-15T07:51:00.002-08:002017-12-15T07:51:43.139-08:00Light Snow Expected This Afternoon<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Light snow is expected to develop across the metro areas this afternoon. Flurries and very light snow are already being reported in northern parts of the area to as far south as Gaithersburg. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While accumulations should be limited to mainly north and east of the Potomac River, an inch to two inches are certainly possible. Due to it being Friday, and the snowfall occurring during the afternoon, impacts to the evening commute are certainly possible. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The highest accumulations will likely reside from Baltimore and to the north and east. But an inch or so of snow is possible as far south and west as the Potomac River. A coating may be possible in Northern Virginia. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Be prepared for hazardous roadway conditions and give snow treatment vehicles plenty of room! Any additional updates will be posted as needed this afternoon and evening.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 7:00pm this evening!<br /><br /><b><u>Howard County Schools have announced they are closing 90 minutes early. </u></b></span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlYcoDJFSV61-YmxEt3u34CrAp1YjAx7eg033nghiOwhI2tYqMfJKh0-Rzyf6Fa7lRcrlNxJ2g6lHiFVVbvijd7vSU4_0SL8W25xazHtXU3EcfE-YqBFsRQvC8wjLtSc6-Kia7GaLvVuW1/s1600/Snow1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="562" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlYcoDJFSV61-YmxEt3u34CrAp1YjAx7eg033nghiOwhI2tYqMfJKh0-Rzyf6Fa7lRcrlNxJ2g6lHiFVVbvijd7vSU4_0SL8W25xazHtXU3EcfE-YqBFsRQvC8wjLtSc6-Kia7GaLvVuW1/s400/Snow1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The radar around 10:45am. You can see snow beginning to develop to the north and west of the city centers. </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-48428472575896571812017-12-08T06:06:00.003-08:002017-12-08T06:06:56.627-08:00Winter Weather Advisory - First Snow of SeasonWell folks...I'll eat my words from yesterday.<br />
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Yesterday morning I had posted that the chances of snow looked pretty slim and prospects were pretty muddy going forward.<br />
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Well...yesterday, the models trended west with the system that is expected to slide off the east coast. For this reason, a more "significant" snowfall is seemingly likely. While this won't be an outright snowstorm, a light to moderate event is likely. One thing to note is that the cutoff will be quite sharp. In other words, you will not have to go far to go from 4 inches of snow to nothing. We'll get into the specifics below.<br />
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As mentioned above, a coastal storm system will track off of the east coast later tonight and tomorrow. With the storm track now expected to be a little to the west of prior forecasts, snow will become likely very late tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. The upper level portions of this storm system have improved a lot over the past 24 hours. Snow will become likely by the wee hours of Saturday morning.<b><u> The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory, which is in effect from tonight until 4:00pm Saturday afternoon.</u></b><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLQ9ExiVLuXFfLl8s_e2NS2Yopc9iOX4AJeyH_MZ4KPmwajXlKVUz1Ou1sH63dq6p59NXRDty5736_QCbUp7RY35JCmM5b3msEImusQpGc-9Ry8Ly36WfgbUakpjyLwOwJ_0qs4nnfU6vw/s1600/WinterWxAdvisory.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="354" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLQ9ExiVLuXFfLl8s_e2NS2Yopc9iOX4AJeyH_MZ4KPmwajXlKVUz1Ou1sH63dq6p59NXRDty5736_QCbUp7RY35JCmM5b3msEImusQpGc-9Ry8Ly36WfgbUakpjyLwOwJ_0qs4nnfU6vw/s320/WinterWxAdvisory.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The purple areas are under a Winter Weather Advisory for this potential storm. This *may* be extended farther to the west with more model data arriving later this morning/this afternoon.</td></tr>
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Heavy snow is NOT expected. However, light to at times moderate snow will be likely. The best chance at a little more snow will be to the south and east of the metro areas (this much has not changed). What HAS changed is the expected western extent. Light snowfall may make it as far west as the Blue Ridge. There may also be some upslope farther west over the mountainous areas of the area.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtxDJ5O-ewB1Wls9r7yHgqJWmOXk9TPGd-D6pU2C_4cMgi2hs8kQpbEMATDetoDuoey4QgF5SMNT6kBRMs7pfkxKthAaArp9Haj9xAdtybQv3wB7GxesHth_-WYfwnyigmfLh06bbXLEwH/s1600/12+to+48+GFS+06z+loop.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtxDJ5O-ewB1Wls9r7yHgqJWmOXk9TPGd-D6pU2C_4cMgi2hs8kQpbEMATDetoDuoey4QgF5SMNT6kBRMs7pfkxKthAaArp9Haj9xAdtybQv3wB7GxesHth_-WYfwnyigmfLh06bbXLEwH/s400/12+to+48+GFS+06z+loop.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z GFS model forecast for the storm. You can see the snow backs pretty far to the west on this model.</td></tr>
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Road accumulations should be minor due to temperatures hovering around or just above freezing - but slick conditions are still possible...especially given the low sun angle at this time of year.<br />
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Total snow accumulations south and east of the area will be 2-4 inches in spots. In the immediate I-95 corridor, 1 inch to as much as 3 inches may be possible. Farther west, the accumulations will taper down to an inch or less or a coating in the farthest west areas.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5qo1XWkxbJjRN812IfdBQr2DLc6W37axKtqQ5Md83A93ionzwfOkbVVB6OxBSWhYrXMNtOwmRCEba6wc4BeR3T83r-NMNr5T_GRc9XKczpkyIXSZathtVH4cqaOtgnBl1DvLXufCdlpMk/s1600/NAM3km+Total+Snow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5qo1XWkxbJjRN812IfdBQr2DLc6W37axKtqQ5Md83A93ionzwfOkbVVB6OxBSWhYrXMNtOwmRCEba6wc4BeR3T83r-NMNr5T_GRc9XKczpkyIXSZathtVH4cqaOtgnBl1DvLXufCdlpMk/s400/NAM3km+Total+Snow.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z run of the 3km NAM model shows a bit more of an eastern snow profile. However, snow still gets into most areas...except for the far western zones.</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSwUxea-aMQMrGqwJcgYU605JDiXU-tvSaUd27CZxNtaF0WV1zrY3JQXo_jowtj5L6QhP8WAkhRQS6_XTHIsojzFhxoeLOaOmcoeANG5Te-WHFeEpXC3ZQ33zZRJXWjqx5Bpa3HA_Tm2ie/s1600/RGEM+Total+Snow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSwUxea-aMQMrGqwJcgYU605JDiXU-tvSaUd27CZxNtaF0WV1zrY3JQXo_jowtj5L6QhP8WAkhRQS6_XTHIsojzFhxoeLOaOmcoeANG5Te-WHFeEpXC3ZQ33zZRJXWjqx5Bpa3HA_Tm2ie/s400/RGEM+Total+Snow.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The RGEM (Canadian regional model) is showing a very robust solution. I'm not sure this will happen. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
What's the potential of this being a busted forecast?<br />
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I would say that we are probably pretty close to the "maximum potential" for this snow event. It's a fairly quick hitting event, which prevents it from being a more significant event. There IS, however, the potential for the storm to cut east again, which would reduce totals significantly. SNow is notoriously hard to get in this area.<br />
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Will post updates as we draw closer. Stay tuned!The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-84755625155861431742017-12-07T19:21:00.003-08:002017-12-07T19:21:54.867-08:00Models Backing West a Bit w/Snow Potential<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The model runs today have given a bit of a welcome surprise for snow lovers! They have come west a bit with the edge of the precipitation for the Friday night and Saturday morning snowfall. The cutoff will be sharp from east to west - but the potential now exists for an inch or two of snow around and to the east of the metro areas. Accumulation on roads would likely be very limited. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A full update will be posted (with images tomorrow morning). </span>Kenny Lorberhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09226923213152703381noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-15223293042314532462017-12-07T04:31:00.000-08:002017-12-07T04:31:17.047-08:00Chilly Air in Place - Snow Lovers Keep Waiting<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As promised, the colder weather has arrived. Chilly conditions will persist into next week with high temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. This cold shot was well predicted by the model guidance. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The next topic of discussion is snow chances. While there will be a relatively weak system off the coast this weekend, the most it will do for our area is some scattered/isolated rain or snow showers. Further, most of this activity will be to the south and east of the metro areas. Snow lovers will have to continue waiting for something significant. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicuHuiYcO5u_bRfLjvxd5UI-3nuUCnSsj561oxF-0F8SauGc7rlwEFPvbXA4porVe7-syp0mFG-w4v7-xcC7PuyEkhONmk6hyEHOlQai6vbFaf21um6BOFPYqx2RX7HK5DN62LFonwnteQ/s1600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh60_trend.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicuHuiYcO5u_bRfLjvxd5UI-3nuUCnSsj561oxF-0F8SauGc7rlwEFPvbXA4porVe7-syp0mFG-w4v7-xcC7PuyEkhONmk6hyEHOlQai6vbFaf21um6BOFPYqx2RX7HK5DN62LFonwnteQ/s400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh60_trend.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The trend of the last few runs of the GFS model for this weekends coastal system. You can see it has shifted a bit west again - but the area remains on the fringe regardless. Any impacts should be minor. </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The middle and longer range models continue to show an trough over the eastern portion of the country. This translates to continued chilly temperatures. There are numerous pieces of energy in the flow that *could* produce some lighter snow events. However, prospects of bigger snowstorms seem relatively bleak for the next period. This is not to say that a rogue system couldn't pop up and deliver a 1-3 inch event. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcq_MWv2Kj2jGtfjFA3ehTMBVTSAsH52Wkj9PW_UonECYQIuit_DC7HqA7E8WGH1BZSRkylFt5HfIjUcd7WvcntqnWzqw80HdZi9PtUMnBtH-5SiDwlPC0je00tz13WnKTWOHANHHVV8IL/s1600/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_us_fh0-384.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1024" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcq_MWv2Kj2jGtfjFA3ehTMBVTSAsH52Wkj9PW_UonECYQIuit_DC7HqA7E8WGH1BZSRkylFt5HfIjUcd7WvcntqnWzqw80HdZi9PtUMnBtH-5SiDwlPC0je00tz13WnKTWOHANHHVV8IL/s400/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_us_fh0-384.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A loop of the 06z GEFS model run from this morning. This particular view shows the 500mb height anomaly. Blue colors indicate a negative anomaly while the red colors indicate a positive anomaly. This ensemble GFS model shows good chances at continued cool temperatures. </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-oAVKqgx4WzqgRqlAJZ_H4BNLcXMRcZ2COI6o2DA0_jHUSKD1ZZcCCSLOB2Fm1oxHOqGdcpTJrH1l5nzHK4Vy6_ux7HZ5LW0AGDoMBseYMO0L9e_cJD893vm1-hB8PR8lqf4FJ5R1J6IA/s1600/ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_fh0-240.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1024" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-oAVKqgx4WzqgRqlAJZ_H4BNLcXMRcZ2COI6o2DA0_jHUSKD1ZZcCCSLOB2Fm1oxHOqGdcpTJrH1l5nzHK4Vy6_ux7HZ5LW0AGDoMBseYMO0L9e_cJD893vm1-hB8PR8lqf4FJ5R1J6IA/s400/ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_fh0-240.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is the ECMWF ensemble (EPS). This is the Euro equivalent to the GEFS. You can see it is in good agreement of negative height anomalies in the eastern part of the country. Whether this translates to snow remains to be seen. Safe to say the 60 degree weather is gone for the time being, though.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many DC area snowstorms tend to come on the relaxation of the long wave pattern (as discussed in the last post). This could translate to a snowstorm threat down the line - but certainly not in the near range of the forecast. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This period is a good example of the fact that cold weather does not always translate to increased snow chances. Often times what will happen is arctic air will flood so far south that storms become suppressed to the south and east (good example of what is happening this weekend). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The TL;DR is that snow lovers will have to wait longer for the first shot at a good amount of snow. Conversational flakes still seem possible over the next week or so - not enough to close schools or workplaces, however. </span>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-91457902614402295012017-12-05T06:00:00.002-08:002017-12-05T06:00:54.511-08:00Colder Weather a Lock - Snow Chances Remain Muddy<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Colder temperatures are a lock to move in behind a cold front later tonight and tomorrow. Relatively elevated overnight temperatures tonight won't rise a ton tomorrow. While temperatures today will be into the 60s, temperatures tomorrow likely won't rise out of the 40s...although upper 40s do seem probable. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By the second half of the week, highs in the lower to mid 40s become more likely. There may be highs in the 30s sprinkled in into the weekend and early next week. From Wednesday into next week, highs will generally oscillate in the upper 30s to mid 40s. While these temperatures aren't "frigid," they will feel noticeably colder than the past few weeks. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmO-XEEDej5tEOi21e0XNP-7ErjDsrzx8xhyphenhyphen9wEh4dBTIJAeTsIf0n_SV5px7VoUXUQEQW7p_eBiM4VZ0uUo_lQI0wbXx5v_f4CF9DApbNxNTGYxZW68cf89TQZUb8cYFLS3y5WGTyrodI/s1600/gfs_T2m_neus_7.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1024" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmO-XEEDej5tEOi21e0XNP-7ErjDsrzx8xhyphenhyphen9wEh4dBTIJAeTsIf0n_SV5px7VoUXUQEQW7p_eBiM4VZ0uUo_lQI0wbXx5v_f4CF9DApbNxNTGYxZW68cf89TQZUb8cYFLS3y5WGTyrodI/s400/gfs_T2m_neus_7.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Temperatures predicted by the 06z GFS model for early tomorrow afternoon. 40s should generally be the case throughout the area. Some blustery winds will also be possible (up to 30mph gusts at times). </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike the cold temperatures...odds of snowfall are much more uncertain. If one looks at the past few GFS runs, the odds of anything more than light snow or flurries seem pretty low. However, uncertainty is pretty high with the pattern we are entering into. There will always be chances for light to moderate snow events to develop in the short to mid range. Snow events are notoriously difficult to predict far in advance (except in a few very rare cases like February 2010). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There will be a weak coastal storm that may scrape extreme eastern portions of the region towards this weekend. The last few runs of the GFS have shown a bit of a trend west. Nonetheless, this won't be a significant precipitation producer by any means...odds of a few snow showers or rain showers are definitely there though. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj40aCce5AclXxAPc7oJL7itYSoLJJznyLbD60GvA4Vtuu4WHWa3nBIqWAf0A4OvY4CEOlx7CUBFHJWDpbJyMb-EaQ3mTFeVxc5KNIaHJmvzhokHK1K_uegUBza8hcUWFtIltPMEQIk1Pdp/s1600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96_trend.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1024" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj40aCce5AclXxAPc7oJL7itYSoLJJznyLbD60GvA4Vtuu4WHWa3nBIqWAf0A4OvY4CEOlx7CUBFHJWDpbJyMb-EaQ3mTFeVxc5KNIaHJmvzhokHK1K_uegUBza8hcUWFtIltPMEQIk1Pdp/s400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96_trend.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The last four runs of the GFS model. The coastal storm is still well to the east. It's unlikely to produce anything more than a few snow or rain showers. However, stay tuned.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After this weekend, some odds do exist for clipper type systems to bring light snow accumulations to the area. However, these types of systems do not become apparent in the flow until short lead times. I'll continue to monitor and post updates if any more legitimate threats evolve. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite cold temperatures, odds of anything *significant* snow seem low throughout the period. Of course, this is subject to change. Take a look at the GFS model from start to finish...not a whole lot of precipitation to speak of. Cold and dry might be the rule for a while. </span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The entire run (from now out to 384 hours) of the 06z GFS. This particular map style shows possible precipitation types. You can see that for the most part, the DC area misses out on anything falling from the sky. Subject to change.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Snowstorm threats, however, do tend to be more likely as the pattern relaxes...so it is possible that a more substantial snowstorm threat may develop as we approach a relaxation of the long wave pattern later in December.</span>The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4748394257201168856.post-21388577739766501492017-12-04T06:36:00.003-08:002017-12-04T06:37:24.091-08:00Chilly Air Arrives This Week - Snow Too?<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The mild weather that has been with us for the past week or two is coming to an end. A strong cold front will be passing through the area later on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday may actually fall during the day. High temperatures will be in the 40s later in the week, and 30s for highs may arrive by the weekend or early next week. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The big question I've been being asked lately is when the chances for snow will be arriving. I'll start to poke around that question below.<br /><br />*****</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Late this week and into this weekend, there will be a few shots at some snowflakes in the air. A weak coastal storm will develop well off the coast on Friday and may allow for some flurries to fly in the area. At this time, the forecast models predict that this will be too far east for much at all. </span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z GFS from December 4, 2017 showing a weak storm system well off the NC coastline. Notice that most of the area remains precipitation free on this frame. </td></tr>
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A potentially higher chance at snow showers comes into the weekend. Keep in mind, no models indicate a large snowstorm or anything more than a small amount of snow. But the odds are increasing at flakes in the air. Of course, I'll continue to monitor the latest information and model guidance to keep you posted on any changes in this forecast. For now, simply expect colder temperatures and a few small chances at some light wintry weather over the next week or so.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 06z GFS from December 4, 2017 showing some snow showers around the area for Saturday night. Any of this activity would likely be light in nature. </td></tr>
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<br />The Capital Region Pulsehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03174716592310602354noreply@blogger.com0