Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Strong Storms Possible Thursday

Beautiful weather is dominating the area today as Canadian high pressure is in control of our weather. Breezy conditions will persist throughout the day but winds will start to calm down towards sunset and into the evening. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s in the cooler suburbs to the low 60s in the urban centers.

The next chance at rainfall will be late Wednesday night and then on Thursday. Odds are not super high at this point...but there is a chance for severe weather. We are already outlooked in a day 3 risk for severe storms from the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Moderate to strong instability will develop across the area on Thursday afternoon with warm air and dewpoints rising into the 60s. There will also be sufficient wind shear to sustain updrafts. However, forcing may be a bit limited and thus storm coverage is a big question mark. In fact, there are some models that leave our area mostly dry.

It is also worth noting, however, that sounding analogs indicate that there is an elevated risk for significant hail growth if storms are able to develop and grow upscale. It is too far out to say anything with any certainty.

The NAM model showing pockets of moderate to strong instability in the area for Thursday afternoon. 
Something to keep an eye on regardless of the end result. Memorial Day forecasts will come into focus in the next day or two as well.

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